Investment Outlook

Learn more about the macro environment, as well as various asset classes and themes, in our quarterly Investment Outlook publication.

New Frontiers: How 2024’s US Election Redefines Boundaries - Q2 2024

US elections do matter, but the reality is that rarely are they as meaningful for markets as investors expect. That's because the real changes tend to be correlated with sweep scenarios. At the risk of flying in the face of decades of collective wisdom, this year has the potential to be very different. Sweep scenarios in both directions are likely being underappreciated, and presidential executive actions may matter more to the economy and Fed policy than ever. The leading candidates' starkly diverging views on tariffs and immigration are likely to mark a pivotal moment for the economy in 2025 and beyond.

Collectively Forecasted, Never Arrived - Q1 2024

The takeaway is that this is not a macro environment where investors should have much confidence in any “base case" scenario unfolding, including the soft landing. Like driving on ice, the trick to surviving 2024 may be not over committing in one direction. Staying flexible at the beginning of the year should allow for more insightful decisions down the road.

The In-Between Time - Q4 2023

The in-between time seems to be a period where monetary policy may appear to have less of an immediate impact on the economy. The recent strength in the labor market is a case in point. Similarly, investors should be prepared for the possibility that the pace of disinflation may slow or even reverse in the coming months

The Catch-22 Economy - Q3 2023

We can thank corporate America for avoiding recession thus far. However, staying on the pathway to a soft-landing, while not impossible, still appears improbable.

A Lesson in Liabilities - Q2 2023

Policymakers appear to have succeeded in putting an end to deposit runs and bank failures in recent weeks by acting swiftly to provide liquidity. However, the risk remains that the bank crisis will smolder for months without any spectacular failures, yet gradually create grave implications for the economy and risk assets.

A storm at a beach looking out to the ocean

Brighter Days Ahead? - Q1 2023

There is growing optimism that investors will fare better in 2023 than they did in 2022. The caveat is that better does not necessarily mean this year will be an especially good one for markets or that it will be easier to navigate.

The Cost of Credibility - Q4 2022

If there is a silver lining to a difficult third quarter, it is that the Federal Reserve appears to have finally caught up to inflation after being well behind the curve at the beginning of the year.

A Double-edged Sword - Q3 2022

According to numerous surveys, most investors now anticipate a US recession before the end of 2023. But it is not just the professional investment community that is concerned; a recession is now a topic of conversation at the dinner table.

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